UMass Lowell

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	289.0
Current RPI:	289
Expected SOS:	297
Current SOS:	297
Current Record:	11-18
Expected Record:	11-18
Current Conf Record:	6-11
Expected Conf Record:	6-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-7
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	313
Expected OOC SOS:	332

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-18	289.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UMass Lowell.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Massachusetts (240.0)	A10	A	74-69	L	0%
11-15	Marist (324.0)	MAAC	H	76-73	W	100%
11-19	Cornell (248.0)	Ivy	H	98-78	W	100%
11-22	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	H	74-66	W	100%
11-26	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	H	83-75	W	100%
11-29	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	H	80-87	L	0%
12-3	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	A	78-65	L	0%
12-5	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	A	90-72	L	0%
12-9	Brown (298.0)	Ivy	A	89-75	L	0%
12-13	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	H	87-82	W	100%
12-23	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	H	73-76	L	0%
12-30	Wisconsin (114.0)	B10	A	82-53	L	0%
1-4	Vermont (60.0)	AE	H	77-88	L	0%
1-10	Hartford (198.0)	AE	A	84-73	L	0%
1-13	UMBC (111.0)	AE	H	62-89	L	0%
1-15	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	H	62-74	L	0%
1-18	Albany (142.0)	AE	A	70-62	L	0%
1-21	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	A	71-79	W	100%
1-24	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	H	82-79	W	100%
1-27	Hartford (198.0)	AE	H	70-77	L	0%
1-31	Maine (338.0)	AE	A	64-88	W	100%
2-8	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	A	81-68	L	0%
2-11	Vermont (60.0)	AE	A	81-69	L	0%
2-15	Albany (142.0)	AE	H	81-91	L	0%
2-18	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	H	74-69	W	100%
2-21	Maine (338.0)	AE	H	88-76	W	100%
2-24	UMBC (111.0)	AE	A	83-75	L	0%
2-27	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	A	77-92	W	100%
3-3	UMBC (111.0)	AE	A	89-77	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UMass Lowell's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UMass Lowell's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UMass Lowell.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UMass Lowell	AE	26.39	26.39	35.43	35.43	-7.69	-7.69
UMBC	AE	6.07	6.07	64.29	64.29	1.73	1.73
Hartford	AE	4.57	4.57	55.17	55.17	0.47	0.47
Vermont	AE	4.50	4.50	77.42	77.42	2.47	2.47
Stony Brook	AE	4.46	4.46	37.93	37.93	-1.08	-1.08
Maine	AE	4.45	4.45	14.29	14.29	-3.18	-3.18
Binghamton	AE	4.40	4.40	33.33	33.33	-1.47	-1.47
Albany	AE	4.38	4.38	65.52	65.52	1.36	1.36
New Hampshire	AE	4.37	4.37	25.93	25.93	-2.10	-2.10
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	2.21	2.21	53.12	53.12	0.14	0.14
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.07	2.07	41.94	41.94	-0.33	-0.33
Sacred Heart	NEC	2.06	2.06	27.59	27.59	-0.92	-0.92
Wagner	NEC	2.03	2.03	68.97	68.97	0.77	0.77
Brown	Ivy	1.96	1.96	36.00	36.00	-0.55	-0.55
Boston University	Pat	1.95	1.95	48.28	48.28	-0.07	-0.07
Cornell	Ivy	1.85	1.85	42.31	42.31	-0.28	-0.28
Loyola MD	Pat	1.84	1.84	27.59	27.59	-0.83	-0.83
NJIT	ASun	1.81	1.81	40.74	40.74	-0.34	-0.34
Massachusetts	A10	1.78	1.78	37.50	37.50	-0.45	-0.45
Marist	MAAC	1.76	1.76	20.00	20.00	-1.05	-1.05
Wisconsin	B10	1.72	1.72	43.75	43.75	-0.22	-0.22
Bryant	NEC	0.42	0.42	9.68	9.68	-0.34	-0.34
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.41	0.41	23.08	23.08	-0.22	-0.22
Colgate	Pat	0.40	0.40	58.06	58.06	0.07	0.07
Army	Pat	0.34	0.34	41.38	41.38	-0.06	-0.06
Columbia	Ivy	0.30	0.30	26.92	26.92	-0.14	-0.14
Holy Cross	Pat	0.28	0.28	38.71	38.71	-0.06	-0.06
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.28	0.28	37.93	37.93	-0.07	-0.07
Bucknell	Pat	0.28	0.28	73.53	73.53	0.13	0.13
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.28	0.28	36.36	36.36	-0.08	-0.08
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.28	0.28	37.93	37.93	-0.07	-0.07
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.28	0.28	57.14	57.14	0.04	0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.27	0.27	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.26	0.26	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.25	0.25	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.25	0.25	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.23	0.23	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.21	0.21	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
American	Pat	0.20	0.20	20.00	20.00	-0.12	-0.12
Rutgers	B10	0.20	0.20	42.42	42.42	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland	B10	0.19	0.19	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Niagara	MAAC	0.17	0.17	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.17	0.17	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.17	0.17	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.16	0.16	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
Providence	BE	0.14	0.14	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	6.67	6.67	-0.12	-0.12
Northwestern	B10	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
George Mason	A10	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.14	0.14	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.13	0.13	87.88	87.88	0.10	0.10
Penn	Ivy	0.13	0.13	74.19	74.19	0.06	0.06
Princeton	Ivy	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Navy	Pat	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Towson	CAA	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	15.62	15.62	-0.08	-0.08
Fordham	A10	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	3.33	3.33	-0.10	-0.10
North Florida	ASun	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.09	0.09	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
George Washington	A10	0.09	0.09	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Connecticut	Amer	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Monmouth	MAAC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
La Salle	A10	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02